Trump Peace Deal

In October of this year, Donald Trump, with the help of aides and advisors such as Marco Rubio and Pete Hegseth, presented what can be described as the most definitive peace plan put forward by an American president in a generation. The official White House website lauds the plan as a way for Israelis and Palestinians to achieve their respective goals, while preserving the safety and civil rights of both groups. 

With the release of the remaining living hostages on October 13th and the following days, it became clear to most that Trump had accomplished something historic. Within ten days, he had singlehandedly ended a two-year war with no end in sight and had returned all of Israel’s living hostages, fulfilling its major war objectives. However, over one month later, it seems that the fate of the troubled region is once again uncertain. To better understand the situation on the ground, it is important to analyze it through the lens of the Peace Plan. I will highlight the most important points in the following paragraphs.

Point #1: “Gaza will be a deradicalised terror-free zone that does not pose a threat to its neighbours.” With this point, the Trump administration recognized what is perhaps the most important underlying issue in the present conflict: the extreme radicalisation (especially of the younger generations) of Palestinians, particularly in Gaza. 

Point #2. “Gaza will be redeveloped for the benefit of the people of Gaza, who have suffered more than enough.” This point is rather self-evident, although it does lay to rest rumours that Trump had plans to expel the two million Palestinians living in Gaza to develop it into an Emirate-style Riviera.

Point #3. If both sides agree to this proposal, the war will immediately end. Israeli forces will withdraw to the agreed-upon line to prepare for a hostage release.” The IDF carried out this objective, and continues to remain at that border, which is located at a so-called “yellow line” surrounding Gaza’s major cities.

Point #4. Within 72 hours of Israel publicly accepting this agreement, all hostages, alive and deceased, will be returned. Crucially, this point was also carried out, and Israel received all twenty remaining hostages. However, as of November 15th, three deceased hostages remain in Gaza. 

Point #5. “Once all hostages are released, Israel will release 250 life sentence prisoners plus 1,700 Gazans who were detained after 7 October 2023, including all women and children detained in that context. For every Israeli hostage whose remains are released, Israel will release the remains of 15 deceased Gazans.” Israel abided by this condition and released the prisoners on the first day of the return of the hostages. 

Point #6. “Once all hostages are returned, Hamas members who commit to peaceful co-existence and to decommission their weapons will be given amnesty. Members of Hamas who wish to leave Gaza will be provided safe passage to receiving countries.” This has not happened in any meaningful way, and Hamas continues to govern a large part of Gaza.

Point #9. “Gaza will be governed under the temporary transitional governance of a technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee, responsible for delivering the day-to-day running of public services and municipalities for the people in Gaza.” This too has not happened yet. 

Point #13. “Hamas and other factions agree to not have any role in the governance of Gaza, directly, indirectly, or in any form. All military, terror, and offensive infrastructure, including tunnels and weapon production facilities, will be destroyed and not rebuilt…” Hamas has not hinted that they will abide by this condition, and their conduct shows that they do not intend to. 

Point #16. “Israel will not occupy or annex Gaza…” This point is crucial to the Palestinians, as it reassures them that the territories they hope to develop into a state are still available. It is also important to Western countries, most of which continue to insist that a future two-state solution is essential. 

Point #19. “While Gaza re-development advances and when the PA reform programme is faithfully carried out, the conditions may finally be in place for a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood, which we recognise as the aspiration of the Palestinian people.” This point came as a surprise to many, as it is the first time the Trump administration has seriously acknowledged the ambitions of the Palestinians as well as the desire for an eventual solution that involves two states. 

Despite the criticisms from Trump's usual detractors, his plan has clearly achieved something immense and represents the first breath of fresh air for the Middle East in over two years. Nonetheless, questions remain as to how the governance of the region will proceed, and with Gaza out of the spotlight it has held for the last two years, it becomes more difficult to understand how this would even be possible. 

A few crucial questions can summarize these concerns: 

1. Will Hamas disarm and relinquish control of the Gaza Strip, and if so, will they do it non-violently? 

2. How will Gaza be governed in the coming years, and what will Israel’s role be?

In short, Hamas has shown it is not currently willing to disarm, and it continues to govern a large part of the Gaza Strip. Although most countries have expressed the need for Hamas to disarm, no serious steps have been taken thus far in that direction. Crucially, Hamas’s benefactors (Iran and Qatar) have not made any indication that they will stop supporting Hamas. Internal tensions quickly arose following the latest ceasefires, with various clan leaders as well as other Islamic groups vying for power, but these were quickly (and brutally) suppressed. 

What is clear, unfortunately, is that the future of the region is uncertain. Israel has vowed that Hamas will play no role in the region's future.  However, Benjamin Netanyahu’s fractious coalition government has shown signs of weakness, and an election is scheduled for October 2026. Additionally, although Iran has been significantly weakened, it is doubtful that the regime has said its last words. Once again, we are stuck in an uncertain hope-fear paradox, in which the future has immense potential for peace but could easily descend into chaos.